1- Faculty of Islamic Handicrafts, Tabriz Islamic Art University, Tabriz, Iran
2- Faculty of Islamic Handicrafts, Tabriz Islamic Art University, Tabriz, Iran , a.khanpour@tabriziau.ac.ir
3- Department of Futures Study, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
Abstract: (8 Views)
Rapid technological advancements have exposed the future of cultural and creative industries to increasing uncertainty, and Iran’s Handwoven carpet art-industry is no exception. Despite the economic, cultural, and identity significance of Persian Handwoven carpets, no comprehensive study has adopted a technological foresight approach to identify the key drivers and explore the possible futures of this sector. The present study aimed to identify the technologies influencing the future of Iran’s Handwoven carpet art-industry, determine the critical uncertainties, and develop plausible scenarios for the 1414 horizon (2035–2036). Accordingly, this study seeks to answer the following question: What coherent future scenarios can be envisioned for the future of Iran’s handwoven carpet art-industry toward the 1414 horizon based on the interaction of technological drivers? This research was conducted using a futures studies approach and a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) design. In the first stage, influential technologies were identified through a comprehensive literature review and expert interviews. Subsequently, a two-round Delphi method was employed to evaluate the key drivers based on two criteria: impact and uncertainty. The relationships among the alternative states of these drivers were then analyzed using a cross-impact matrix and processed with ScenarioWizard software. The findings revealed that, among the 54 identified technologies, 14 were positioned in the high-impact/high-uncertainty quadrant and were therefore recognized as key drivers. Cross-impact analysis of these drivers resulted in the development of four distinct scenarios for the future of Iran’s Handwoven carpet art-industry: Integrated Technological Transformation, Resistance to Technological Transformation, Gradual Technological Transition, and Uneven Technological Development. The results indicate that the future of this art-industry depends not merely on the emergence of new technologies but, more importantly, on the quality of governance, the degree of institutional coordination, the empowerment of human capital, and the manner in which technology is integrated with cultural values and the value chain structure. Accordingly, the findings provide a valuable foundation for forward-looking policymaking and strategic planning aimed at the sustainable development of Iran’s Handwoven carpet art-industry.
Type of Study:
Original Research |
Subject:
4 Received: 2026/08/10 | Accepted: 2026/10/6